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MTA Expansion Rankings

Visuals in this post: Construction Costs Funding Mix City of Yes vs. Rezonings Expansion Rankings
Transit & Housing June 2026

Ranking the MTA's Expansion Wishlist

Every candidate expansion project in the MTA's 2023 20-Year Needs Assessment Comparative Evaluation, ranked by its official cost-effectiveness metric: cost per minute of door-to-door travel time saved over 30 years (lower is better). Note the metric carefully, this is cost per minute saved, not cost per rider. The values span $0 to $262 per minute; the chart caps at $15 per minute, with five extreme outliers above that range listed in the full data table below.

Cost per minute of travel time saved over 30 years (lower is better)

The MTA's official cost-effectiveness metric: 30-year net present value of capital plus operating costs, divided by total door-to-door travel time saved, in 2027 dollars. This is cost per minute saved, not cost per rider. Sublabels show project type, total projected 2045 daily riders, and construction cost.

Interborough Express (IBX)
Second Ave Subway 125th St extension
All other projects

Main chart scale: $0–$15 per minute saved. Five projects scored above this range and are listed in the full data table below.

Created by Tal Roded · NYCuriosity · Sources: MTA 20-Year Needs Assessment, Comparative Evaluation (2023)
Cost-effectiveness vs. ridership

Each bubble is one project: horizontal position is cost per minute of travel time saved (further left is more efficient), vertical position is projected 2045 daily riders, and bubble size is construction cost. The Interborough Express sits in the sweet spot, with a low cost per minute and high ridership. Five extreme outliers above $15 per minute are off this scale.

Interborough Express
2nd Ave Subway 125th St ext.
Other projects
bubble size = construction cost
Created by Tal Roded · NYCuriosity · Sources: MTA 20-Year Needs Assessment, Comparative Evaluation (2023)

The IBX scored best of any proposed new line at $1.29 per minute saved, and it was the only project rated in the top category on 7 of 8 evaluation criteria. Three small projects technically scored better on the raw metric (the Ridgewood Busway and two junction/capacity fixes), but none of them is a new transit line. Among genuine expansion lines, the Second Ave Subway's crosstown extension to 125th St/Broadway came in second at $1.43/min.

The data behind the chart All 27 ranked projects, including the five outliers.
#ProjectTypeCost/min savedDaily riders 2045Construction cost

The metric: "Cost/Time Saved (30 yrs)" is the MTA's own cost-effectiveness measure, the 30-year net present value of capital costs (construction plus fleet, in 2027 dollars) and operating & maintenance costs, divided by total door-to-door travel time saved. The MTA cautions that these are conceptual-level planning estimates, not rigorous cost estimates. The Ridgewood Busway shows $0/min because its projected operating savings over the project lifetime exceed its capital cost.

Ridership figures: The riders shown in each sublabel are total projected 2045 daily riders on the project, including riders diverted from existing MTA services, not net-new riders to the system. The gap can be large: the Second Ave Subway extension to Houston St projects 230,400 total daily riders but only 2,900 net-new.

Second Ave Subway Phase 2: Phase 2 proper (96th St to 125th St/Lexington) was excluded from the Comparative Evaluation because it was already committed and funded. The project evaluated here is the crosstown extension along 125th St to Broadway that would build beyond Phase 2.

IBX ridership vintages: The 118,700 figure shown is the 2023 evaluation's 2045 forecast. The MTA's current project page estimates 160,000 weekday riders, a later planning estimate, not the same forecast.

Excluded from the bars: Two LIRR infill stations (Elmhurst and Sunnyside) were evaluated but have no computed cost-effectiveness value because they produce no net travel time savings, they add stops that delay existing riders. They are in the downloadable CSV.

Sources: MTA 20-Year Needs Assessment, Appendix 06: Comparative Evaluation (2023); the full assessment is at future.mta.info. IBX current estimates from the MTA Interborough Express project page.